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via GlobeSt.com In Dallas, Denver, Houston, Kansas City and Seattle, consumers looking to build wealth are better off renting a property and reinvesting the money they would have spent on ownership, according to an analysis by professors at Florida Atlantic University and Florida International University. That’s because the total monthly cost of home ownership in those areas is rising faster than monthly rents, the researchers said. Read More..
YOU DO NOT WANT TO MISS THIS FINAL WEBINAR FOR 2021!!! It has been a very challenging 21+ months for most rental property owners, and hopefully, things will turn around and vastly improve in 2022. During 2020 and 2021, we experienced an unprecedented global pandemic, dramatic changes in how we conduct our daily lives, economic uncertainty, and more.. Thursday, December 16, 2021 from 11:00 AM to 12:00 PM PST Register Here: https://events.r20.constantcontact.com/register/eventReg?oeidk=a07eixcge5lc5a7fd67&oseq=&c=&ch=
via AptNewsInc.com By Debby Figoni, Water Conservation Administrator, City of Beverly Hills via AAGLA.org California is in extreme drought —again! Our last drought went from 2011 to 2017 and the present drought could last even longer. We all need to do our part to alter our water use habits and this article will help you to easily accomplish this. Did you know that typical indoor water use is about 55 gallons per person per day, or that a single-family home uses about two-thirds of Read More..
Join us and listen to our panel that includes the most experienced real estate property management experts in Southern California today. Learn important new insights and ways to think about your tenants, and how to keep your returns up and income consistent. GUEST SPEAKERS: Matt Williams, Kari Negri, Scott Brody, Joel Rodstein December 14 - Registration URL: https://conta.cc/3xZo2AX
via Bisnow.com First delta, now omicron: Employers attempting to get their staff back in the office might kick the can down the road once again as a result of renewed coronavirus concerns. The delta variant of the novel coronavirus dashed the return-to-office optimism of early summer, forcing companies to put their plans on hold. Now, the new omicron variant is expected to do the same, some market watchers note, dealing another blow to return-to-office traction. Read more..
By Lynn Pollack via GlobeSt.com The national median rent in November was $1,312 this month, still $117 greater than where Apartment List economists predict it would have been had pre-pandemic trends continued. Apartment rents fell in more than half of the nation’s major markets this month, suggesting a widespread cooldown in a market that’s been buoyed by pandemic-driven shifts in consumer preferences. Apartment List’s national index increased by just 0.1% in November, the lowest month-over-month growth rate all year. The uptick does come at a time when seasonality normally causes rents to dip, however, and the national median rent has increased by 17.8% since the beginning of the year, a staggering contrast to pre-pandemic averages, which sat around 2.6%. Read More..
via CAAnet.org The Los Angeles City Council has once again decided to leave its eviction moratorium and rent freeze in place, ignoring the city’s housing providers, as well as the state Legislature. On Nov. 10, the council extended its COVID-19 state of emergency, which includes the eviction moratorium and temporary prohibition on rent increases. Councilman Joe Buscaino, however, made it clear he would not vote to extend the emergency declaration again. Buscaino said the city needs a comprehensive “look at what makes sense to continue, what should be revisited, revised or repealed” and introduced this proposal to start the process. CAA urges the council to take up this proposal as soon as possible. Read more..
The Jobs Report We’ve Been Waiting For
It's long been thought that employment would surge once enhanced unemployment benefits, handed out to cushion the pain of the pandemic, were allowed to expire. While many unemployed workers may not yet be ready to return to work, last week’s Employment Situation report showed robust hiring in October.
Nonfarm employment grew by 531,000 jobs, while September figures, which could have captured the immediate effect of expiring benefits in all states, were upwardly revised from 194,000 jobs to 312,000 jobs. In August, when just over two dozen states had already withdrawn enhanced unemployment benefits, nonfarm employment growth was revised higher from 366,000 jobs to 483,000 jobs.
Demand for services has been rising as restrictions are lifted and the economy more fully reopens. The nation’s health crisis appears to be improving, with new COVID cases falling through September and October from the spike brought on by the delta variant. Schools are returning to in-person learning, large gatherings are becoming more common and tourism is making a comeback as travel restrictions ease. Firms in the accommodation and food services industry added 143,000 jobs in October, compared to 49,000 in September. Hotel bookings are up, and many more families are planning to travel this holiday season compared to last, so this industry may finally be on track for a fuller recovery.
Factory employment, as well as transportation and warehousing, also experienced substantial gains. With supply-chain disruptions continuing, additional hiring in these sectors is welcome. Manufacturing employment grew by 60,000 positions in October as automobile production lines sprang back to life and inputs to all manner of durable and nondurable goods remained in strong demand. The return of air travel and commuters returning to bus and rail service added 25,000 positions, while 28,000 truckers and warehouse workers began new jobs during the month.
Sectors that tend to drive demand for office space are also experiencing growth. Administrative support, health care, and professional and technical services firms added a combined 143,000 jobs in October.
The unemployment rate fell to 4.6% in October from 4.8% in September and 5.2% in August.
Not Everyone Is Back at Work
As a measure of the availability of labor, however, unemployment rates have been a poor barometer of late because of the sharp decline in labor force participation at the onset of the pandemic. Labor force participation for the population age 16 and over has remained stubbornly low for over a year, measuring 61.6% compared to 63.3% in February of 2020.
The labor force has fallen by almost 5.3 million during the pandemic. Some of that was expected, as members of the baby boom generation were already slated for retirement. But the pandemic appears to have hastened retirement for others who benefited from healthy household finances and rising asset values that could fund retirement life. Others who had worked prior to the pandemic remain sidelined due to childcare or other family care needs, or by concerns over exposure to COVID.
Workers could start returning in the coming months because job applicants are encountering favorable hiring conditions, at least in terms of wages. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that average weekly earnings grew by 4.6% year over year in October. Compared to the pre-pandemic growth trend, average weekly earnings are about 5.2% higher.
This is largely due to the mix of workers in the employment pool. Early 2020 saw massive job losses among leisure and hospitality businesses, as well as in retail industries, two sectors that tend to offer the lowest wages. Simply removing these cohorts from the sample raises the average earnings for those that remain. Still, the earnings trend — the slope of that line — has been increasing over the past few months as competition for labor pushes wages higher.
The largest gains in earnings have been in leisure and hospitality, which includes accommodation and food services as well as arts and entertainment. Here, average weekly wages grew by 12% year over year, but remain low at $500 per week. Despite recent job gains in the sector, employment is still more than 1 million positions short of pre-pandemic levels and demand for these services is rapidly returning. Employers are hoping to entice workers back to their prior positions as labor shortages constrain their ability to return to full service, but many former workers in the sector, after receiving a boost in income through enhanced unemployment benefits and other fiscal measures, took the opportunity to upskill for new occupations or to invest in new business ventures. New business formations have been at or close to record highs since mid-2020.
Wage Gains Appear Despite Less To Show for Them
Continued hiring doesn’t mean that the new workers are pulling their weight. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported last week that labor productivity fell by an annualized 5% in the third quarter of 2021, the slowest productivity growth since 1982.
As we learned a few weeks ago , the spread of the delta variant in August and September held economic activity back, leading to slowing output growth. But hiring continued. The report noted that hours worked increased by 7.0% (annualized) while output grew by only 1.7%. While competition for labor drove compensation per hour higher by 2.9%, the fall in productivity led to an 8.3% increase in unit labor costs, or 4.8% higher than a year ago.
The mix of job growth by industries can have an impact on productivity growth. Firms in lower-productivity sectors, such as leisure and hospitality, have been hiring back more workers than higher-productivity sectors, such as information. However, faster technology adoption, strong investment in equipment and intellectual property, the acceleration of new business formation and still widespread remote working can all contribute to future productivity gains, which should keep higher unit labor costs from being passed on to consumers.
What We’re Watching …
A lot of ink was spilled last month with the release of the Labor Department’s Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey report, which showed a record 4.3 million workers quit their jobs in August. Quits are typically a sign that workers are confident they can find another job, presumably more to their liking. That’s probably true, as hires numbered 6.3 million in the month, a big figure but still fewer than July due mostly to slower hiring in education, accommodation and food services, and state and local government.
Quits rose the most in accommodation and food services, where competition for labor has been stiff. Job openings number 10.4 million, a bit fewer than in July, and expectations are for this number to fall again in September when an update is scheduled to be released on Friday. These numbers remain far higher than pre-COVID levels, strong enough to continue to draw more workers from the sidelines back into the labor market and ease wage pressures that could fuel faster inflation.
In reaction to signs of rising inflation, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell reported last week that the Fed will begin reducing its asset purchases by $15 billion a month starting in November. If that rate of reduction is maintained, asset purchases will come to an end by June 2022, and analysts will be watching when rate hikes might begin. Powell has insisted that the two tools are not connected, but expectations are that rates would begin to rise in the second half of 2022.
Also widely watched should be the retail sales report for October, due next week. Consumers are likely to be in a hurry to spend on the holidays, starting their shopping early to get ahead of potential shortages and lock in purchases before inventories run out. Household finances in general are in great shape, and inflation will boost the nominal value of sales.
CoStar Economy is produced weekly by Christine Cooper, managing director and chief U.S. economist, and Rafael De Anda, associate director of CoStar Market Analytics in Los Angeles.
Join Scott Properties Group on Thurs, November 18 for another CRE Happy Hour of networking for real estate professionals. Join us at Upper West in Santa Monica, from 5-7pm. Food and drinks provided. please RSVP: https://tinyurl.com/w8k7fmdx